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  • Writer's pictureNorth Shore Democrats of Travis County

Orange Convicted Felon should worry about his support peeling away, thanks to his 34 guilty verdicts

On the face of it, Trump’s 34 felony convictions have barely moved the needle among voters. But a deeper dive into several polls show some disturbing trends — disturbing for Trump, that is.

Despite right-wing media propaganda, more than half of those polled approved of the verdict

Jay Kuo in the Status Kuo on Substack took a closer look into several post-conviction polls. (1)


The Reuters/Ipsos poll taken two days after the verdict revealed that 10 percent of Republicans said they are less likely to vote for Trump.

“It’s that 10 percent that Trump should be worried about” Kuo writes.

Reuters notes that losing a 10th of his own party’s voters is significant.

Among independent registered voters, a full 25 percent — one out of four — said the conviction made them less likely to vote for the Orange Man in November, Reuters said.

“It’s helpful to note that independents are rarely true ‘swing’ voters,” Kuo said. “Most independents are Republican- or Democratic-leaning.… But no matter how you look at it, a negative shift among a quarter of these voters is bad news for the Trump campaign.”

Morning Consult Poll

A couple key findings from the Morning Consult poll should be worrisome to Orange Man’s campaign. (3)

According to Morning Consult, 49 percent of independents believed Trump should drop out of the race, while 15 percent of general Republican voters thought he should as well. That latter number is consistent with the expected number of “Haley” voters out there, Kuo remarked.

Even 8 percent of his current supporters said he should drop out of the race.

ABC News/Ipsos poll

Most Americans agreed by a 2:1 margin that the verdict was correct, according to the ABC/Ipsos poll.

Nearly half of respondents (49 percent) said Trump should end his campaign. That includes 16 percent of Republicans, along with 52 percent for independents. The last figure is similar to the Morning Consult poll.

Continued corruption

Then there’s the Trump payola to witnesses, as Heather Cox Richardson points out. She notes that ProPublica reported that Trump’s businesses and campaign committees have funneled significant financial benefits to at least nine witnesses in the criminal campaigns against Trump, often at crucial moments in the legal proceedings.

The pay of one campaign aide doubled; another got a $2 million severance package that barred him from cooperating with law enforcement. The daughter of one of the campaign’s top officials was hired onto the staff and is now the fourth-highest-paid employee, with a salary of $222,000. Payments to the companies of certain witnesses dramatically increased. (5)

GOP spin

Of course, the GOP, from Trump toady Mike Johnson, the hapless Speaker of the House, down, is spinning the 34 guilty verdicts as a positive for Trump.

As political consultant Stuart Stevens put it: “I worked in five presidential races and helped elect Republican governors or Senators in over half the country. I have never heard anything more transparently desperate than a party trying to spin that there is some non-MAGA pool of voters who can't wait to vote for a convicted felon.” (5)

Next: The sentencing. Stay tuned.


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