By Mike Killalea, NSD president
A new study details the economics catastrophe that would ensue, should Trump and the ghoulish Stephen Miller succeed in ordering the deportation of 10 million people.
First, there’s cost. At an estimated $13,000 cost for each deportation, deporting 10 million people would cost … well, do the math. I get a whopping $1.3 TRILLION to deport them all. Then there would be the cost of the “detention camps.”
Further, Increased deportation is associated with poorer economic outcomes for US-born workers. The study, using a case study of actual an actual deportation program, when half a million immigrants are removed from the labor market due to deportations and indirectly due to “chilling effects” slashes the number of US-board workers by 44,000 jobs.
So, for 500,000 immigrants deported, 44,000 Americans lose their jobs. That’s nearly 10%. so, if 10 million are deported, will 1 million additional jobs be lost? It’s not that hard to predict.
The study uses actual data from the Secure Communities (SC) program, which was created expressly to identify and deport people who were in the US without authorization. About 400,000 people were deported under SC between 2008 and 2014, after which SC was replaced with the Priority Enforcement Program (PEP).
Researchers found broad “chilling effects” of the policy that meant even people not targeted for deportation became fearful of leaving their house to do routine things like go to work. This is partly because the program did not only target serious criminals—the most serious criminal conviction for 79% of those deported was non-violent, including traffic violations and immigration offenses, and another 17% were not convicted of any crime.
Across multiple studies, economists have found that once SC is implemented, the number of foreign-born workers in that county declines and the employment rate among U.S.-born workers also declines. the research finds that when half a million immigrants are removed from the labor market because of enforcement (due to deportations and indirectly due to chilling effects), it reduces the number of US-born people working by 44,000.
America needs Congress to create a comprehensive immigration plan, and stop Trumpers from roadblocking progress.
“Immigration law has not been comprehensively updated for 34 years and as a result is designed for an outdated labor market and an outdated demographic reality,” said researcher Chloe East.
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