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  • Writer's pictureNorth Shore Democrats of Travis County

New detailed analysis from shows growing blue strength across the state

By Mike Killalea, NSD president

A sweeping new analysis published by demonstrates Texas’s growing shift to voting Democratic, while observing that ruby-red rural Texas is about as Republican as possible. Therefore, there is little room to grow on the right, found author James Bedwell. 

“Texas is definitely a state to watch out for, even though it is currently still in the republican column,” Bedwell concluded. “That is something that could change a lot sooner than most would think. Texas flipping would be an absolute disaster for Republicans, and it would shatter a lot of stereotypes about Texas that are no longer true about most of us who live here.”

It’s no surprise to those of us on the North Shore that the city of Austin, long the state’s liberal bastion, has shifted even further blueward :

Bedwell explains that Austin has moved from Bush+13 points in 2000 to Obama+14 in 2012 to Biden+36 in 2020. Austin has also netted Democrats an additional Congressional district and many state House seats, as historically GOP-dominated areas such as Williamson and Hays counties rapidly become bluer, he added.

The bluing of DFW

He cited Dallas-Fort Worth as having the most apparent among all the metros. DFW went from netting Bush hundreds of thousands of votes to voting for Biden by double digits. This leftward trend was the most striking in suburban and highly educated Collin County, where it went from Bush+50 to Romney+31 to Trump+4, a gargantuan shift of 46 points! (And that’s Collin County, home turf of Ken You-know-who.)


Encouraging information, indeed. Still, road blocks remain. One is our huge rural area. Bedwell notes that rural voters compose about a sixth of the Texas electorate, and have traditionally been a very Republican demographic.\\

The good news for us is that this rural trend seems to be slowing. Bedwell says that many rural areas cannot get any redder. There are simply no more Democrats to flip or drive away.

Bedwell specifically mentions Roberts County. This Panhandle county is the reddest in the country: it backed Trump by 94 points.

Worse news is that Republicans have made inroads along the historically blue Texas border. They had a very intense rightward shift in 2020, despite that Democrats in 2022 clawed back some support with Hispanics, Bedwell wrote. 

“Still, it is unclear if Biden will be able to keep those gains in 2024, or if he will continue to crater with Hispanics there, which could cost Democrats up to three congressional districts, three house seats, and a state senate seat that they could very well win if they hold up well with rural Hispanics,” he cautioned.

Overall excellent news, but peppered with enough challenges to keep Democrats earthbound!

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